Analysing Scott Morrison's National Press Club speech

Put on your deep sea diving suit, because today we are plunging into the inky depths to analyse Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s recent speech to the National Press Club.

Readers will notice that this isn’t the first time I’ve done an exercise like this – I extended the same treatment to Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt’s farewell speech and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s election campaign launch speech.

But, despite one of them being a key ally of the Prime Minister, and the other desperately seeking to soon become Prime Minister, neither holds that office. Whatever one’s feelings about Scott Morrison, I still think it matters (and that, moreover, it should matter) when the PM delivers a keynote speech to a throng of the nation’s most prominent journalists.

This speech is quite long so rather than deconstructing every line, I’ll excerpt the most important sections. Those sections could be where Morrison introduces a new policy, re-asserts or re-emphasises an existing one, or introduces a piece of rhetoric which signals a particular strategy, just a few months out from the next election. Hope you enjoy! Please write with any feedback.

The opening

Thank you very much. It’s great to be back here at the National Press Club at the start of another year.

Let me begin by acknowledging the Ngunnawal people, their elders past, present and emerging. I also recognise any veterans who are with us today, as well as any serving men and women of our Australian Defence Forces and thank you all for your great service to our country.

I particularly acknowledge and have many colleagues here today, so I'm not going to call the roll, but the Deputy Prime Minister – Barnaby, it's great to have you here with me.

Also, I acknowledge my dear friend Marise Payne for one particular reason - in just a few weeks' time, Marise will become the longest-serving female senator in Australia's history. And the longest continuous-serving parliamentarian as a female. And so, congratulations to you, Marise. You're a great colleague and you've served our country incredibly well. As a Liberal, I'm very proud of you. And as a mate too.

I initially wasn’t sure whether to include this or not. Beyond it possibly being a bit weird to exclude the very beginning of a speech, I think this passage is interesting for two reasons – one ideological and the other purely gossip-related. 

The first is the explicit acknowledgement of serving Australian Defence Force personnel. It’s not the first time Morrison has done this in a speech, nor will it be the last. The ideological signal is there, as clear as a bird outside a freshly-washed window. Troops keep Australia and the Australian way of life safe (according to the Morrison worldview), therefore they are worthy of special acknowledgement. In a country where it’s highly unusual to say “God Bless Australia”, this feels like its close cousin.

The second is that the acknowledgement of the service of Foreign Minister Marise Payne is somewhat amusing in light of the micro-scandal which has come to dominate the substance of the speech. Marise Payne has had to deny rumours that she was the other party in a text message exchange with then-NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and an as-yet unnamed Liberal Minister, which apparently saw Morrison called a “psycho” and a “fraud”.

Setting the scene

The past three years have been some of the most extraordinary that our nation has ever experienced. Younger generations have never known anything like it.

The succession of natural disasters from drought to flood, fires, pestilence, a once in a century global pandemic, the recession it caused, has pushed our country to the very limits.

It has been tough raising your family, keeping your job, doing your job - especially for those health and aged care workers, who we thank for their tremendous service.

It’s been tough keeping your small business or your farm going.

It's been tough keeping your children’s education up, caring for elderly relatives, those with a disability, and it’s been very tough on them too.

Family plans have been disrupted. And worst of all it’s been heartbreaking to lose so many loved ones, especially in recent weeks, and on many occasions we have been unable to come together to farewell them.

Our way of life has been completely turned upside down.

For so many Australians it has been exhausting - financially, physically, emotionally. And when we thought we were just breaking free - the rains have come down, the cyclone has hit or a new and completely different strain of the virus, like Omicron, has come and changed all the rules.

And I don’t doubt many have stayed awake at night after telling their kids or those they care for, or those they employ that it’s all going to be OK, but wondering to themselves, in the quiet of that night, whether it really will be.

And as Prime Minister I can assure you I have asked those same questions and lived with the same doubts.

One of Scott Morrison’s most distinctive traits is to ascribe to fate and misfortune what others might, less charitably, attribute to an absence of leadership. 

What is immediately striking about this section is the passivity of it all. This parade of misfortune has befallen Australia, and there’s nothing to be done. Needless to say, the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic – which figures heavily in this section – is not Morrison’s fault. It’s not anyone’s fault. But consider some of the other difficulties he mentions which Australians are currently facing, and decide for yourself if it’s fair to believe that the Prime Minister should be capable of doing more than lamenting.

It is important for Prime Ministers to ask questions! And, in the right moment, it’s good for them to give voice to their own doubts. However, it is even more important for them to attempt answers. That is, simply put, the job. But downplaying his own capacity to conduct the locomotive of history is perhaps Morrison’s most unfortunate political and rhetorical tendency.

The balance thing

Lessons that will continue to be invaluable to me and my team, so many of whom are with me today, and those out there with their communities, to deal with challenges and uncertainties that are still ahead.

And I’d like to share a few of them with you.

Firstly, you’ve always got to focus on getting the balance right.

From the outset of the pandemic, I have said our twin goals have been to save lives and save livelihoods. This is how we protect our Australian way of life. And I have always sought to balance our health objectives with our broader societal and economic well-being.

The above paragraph is quite confusing! There are two goals – to save lives and livelihoods. But there is also a… higher goal (?) of protecting our Australian way of life (conspicuously undefined, that way it remains an inkblot).

We must respect the virus but we must not live in fear of it. You must be prepared to listen to that advice, but also to take the decisions that strike the right balance. Because it is we who have been trusted with those decisions.

Secondly, you must be very practical. The virus does not care what your political views are. It writes the rules about how it behaves and we must then write our rules about how we respond. And these rules must be flexible - they will change. There is no set and forget in a pandemic like this. There are times when you have to pull back and there are times you have to push forward. And what may have been the right response at one point in time during the pandemic may flip on you and it may not be the right response in a later phase of the pandemic.

Thirdly, you must accept that you may lose a few battles along the way.

It’s not quite clear to me what battles Morrison is referring to here. He may be referring to political battles between the Commonwealth and the states and territories (presumably the Labor-governed ones in particular). “Losing a few battles along the way” may refer to Covid-19 deaths, which would be a very unfortunate choice of phrase. I’m sure there are other options too, and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. 

And when these setbacks occur you must keep moving forward. You can’t dwell on the things that haven’t play out as you may have expected or liked. When this occurs, the job is to get across the problem and make the changes needed as soon as possible. And get on with it.

This is what we did with the vaccine rollout when our contracted supplies were blocked and the advisory bodies had limited our use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. These were big challenges. But we turned it around.

It is what we are doing right now to overcome the supply chain shortages created by the onset of the Omicron variant. It’s only been with us two months. And this included the supply of Rapid Antigen Tests.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, COVID-19 tests have always been free at official testing clinics. Never changed.

These tests have been sourced and provided by the state and territory governments. The Commonwealth picks up 50% of the bill - just like those going out to schools right now.

The unprecedented surge in cases caused by Omicron changed everything. It was like dealing with a completely new virus. The medical advice to Government on the use of Rapid Antigen Tests changed and so did our response.

There are three parts here where Morrison opts for defensive language. 

The first is the reference to the glacial pace of the initial vaccine roll-out from 12 months ago. Frankly, I think this is ill-advised – why remind Australians of something most are keen to forget about? – but I am not a political advisor to the Prime Minister.

The second is that “Covid-19 tests have always been free at official testing clinics”. This may be true, but it is only narrowly true. Morrison doesn’t take care to discern between PCR tests and Rapid Antigen Tests. And the phrase “official testing clinics” is doing a significant amount of work. Much of the community anger about Covid-19 testing has not been about the price of tests at official testing clinics, it has been about the prevalence of Covid-19 tests throughout the community, including non-official sites such as pharmacies. People are angry because, even if they can get their hands on Rapid Antigen Tests (by no means a certainty), they are paying through the nose.

The third is the familiar refrain of the Omicron variant having “changed everything”, including the medical advice received. I have some sympathy with this, but again my sympathy is constrained by the fact that the Prime Minister and his Cabinet ought to be some of the nation’s best strategists and decision makers. Medical advice is not gospel. Like all advice, it is to be weighed and taken into consideration. And, given that Covid-19 had already mutated several times before the emergence of Omicron, it’s disappointing that, seemingly, no thought was given to contingency planning on the basis of another strain coming to the fore. Good plans take uncertainty into consideration. Furthermore, implicit in this line is the idea that Rapid Antigen Tests wouldn’t have been a priority in a non-Omicron world. Given that all the states and territories (barring West Australia) agreed to discard our Zero Covid policy and open their borders, it was therefore logical that this would lead to a rapid rise in case numbers – and, therefore, as Australians became anxious about the extent of community spread – and a big increase in the demand for Rapid Antigen Tests.

Australia has many differences with the rest of the world. Our regulatory authorities, our seasons, our health and social security systems, our federation. Unique. Cut and paste doesn't cut it in a pandemic. And that is why we designed JobKeeper, rather than go down the UK path for wage subsidies, which others recommended, that would have provided greater income support to those on higher wages than those on lower wages and could not have been easily delivered, or promptly delivered, through our tax system or payments system.

So we said no, that wasn't a good idea. We won't do that. We'll design a different system. And we did. And it saved lives and livelihoods all across this country.

Fifthly, you must have clearly defined principles, grounded in your values, to guide your decisions and you must stick to them.

It’s a bit rich to claim credit for “designing” JobKeeper when it is widely understood that the wage subsidy scheme borrowed heavily from New Zealand’s own such scheme – although without the same commitment to transparency as our friends across the ditch.

As for the final claim here, I will again leave it to readers to determine if they think that the Federal Government’s decision making through the 2+ years of the Covid-19 pandemic has been “grounded in our values”, or perhaps driven by more politically contingent factors.

The health of the nation

Following a very brief aside to address security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, and then the recitation of some statistics about Covid-19 vaccination, Morrison then turns to discuss funding that’s been provided to the broader non-hospital health sector through the pandemic.

Of course, none of our health outcomes would be possible without the hard work, the long hours and dedicated care offered by our frontline health and aged care workforce. The true heroes of this pandemic. Their resilience over the past two years has been nothing short of inspiring.

That’s why I am announcing today the Government is providing a further $209 million to support the aged care workforce to continue to care for older Australians through this pandemic.

Now, this is a responsible commitment that builds on the $393 million provided over three payments to 234,000 aged care workers earlier in the pandemic. It worked, we’re doing it again.

In coming months, two bonus payments of up to $400 each will be paid to aged care workers including those providing direct care, food or cleaning services.

Our pandemic investments in mental health and suicide prevention will also leave a lasting legacy.

While every death by suicide is a tragedy, every life saved is a great blessing. Official figures show that while demands for mental health services surged off the charts during the pandemic, remarkably, death by suicide rates across the country actually fell. And it remained at those lower levels. That’s extraordinary.

We funded services that did a brilliant job of saving lives. $1 billion in new funding for services such as Headspace - and a shout-out to Pat McGorry, who's been a great adviser and friend to us through all of this pandemic. Lifeline, to John Brogden and the whole team there. Beyond Blue, with Julia and the Kids Helpline - they have done such an amazing job, being there for Australians in their darkest hour.

Our National Mental Health and Wellbeing Pandemic Response Plan was announced in May 2020.

Also very early in the pandemic when we were asking Australians to stay home, we knew and recognised that for so many, home is not safe for them, especially women.

And in March 2020, as part of our $150 million COVID-19 Domestic Violence Support Package, we provided $20 million to boost capacity for Commonwealth programs including 1800RESPECT, Mensline and the Help Is Here campaign.

And in turn, $130 million was provided directly to state and territory governments for emergency accommodation for those impacted, and a range of frontline support services, working together. Now this commitment has been extended a further two years.

And to ensure the viability of NDIS providers we provided more than $666 million in advance payments, and made changes to allow eligible NDIS providers to claim a payment to support their disability workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

Strong health resilience, built through a once in a century pandemic.

The centrepiece of this section is the announcement (which had been dropped to newspapers ahead of the speech) of the two bonus payments of up to $400 to aged care workers. 

I think it’s safe to say that this $209 million announcement wasn’t received with the gratitude that the Prime Minister was hoping for. Instead, it was perceived as an inadequate fig leaf attempting to score points while obscuring the fact that, 11 months after the Aged Care Royal Commission handed down its findings, the Federal Government has done little more than vaguely committing to its recommendations. 

The rest of this section is largely unspectacular boilerplate, although I will briefly note (and this is by no means a fault only of the Federal Government) that additional funding to mental health services because of the distress caused by the pandemic has always seemed to me to represent a certain failure of moral imagination. Funding mental health support is good. But there is no shortage of advisors, advocates and activists – of varying ideological and influence proximity to the Morrison Government – who are full of ideas about how we could have provided people with better support during the pandemic rather than funding the after-effects. Prevention is better than cure, goes the old saw.

Economic resilience

Morrison then segues into a discussion of Australia’s resilient economic performance throughout the pandemic, made possible by his Government’s proactive response. 

Our economy has also shown formidable resilience through the pandemic. It has outstripped the performance of most advanced economies in the world.

And this was greatly assisted by entering the pandemic with a balanced budget delivered by strong financial management.

It’s interesting that despite the economic response to Covid-19 having well and truly blown out the budget deficit for years to come, Morrison is still very eager to assert his government’s prudence and credibility on this front. It feels like claiming victory for yesterday’s war.

While Omicron has impacted economic activity over January, Treasury analysis shows that the underlying strength of our economy is unshaken. On several occasions now our economy has bounced back strongly from the impacts of the pandemic. And it will again.

Our AAA credit rating remains intact, one of only nine countries to achieve this.

At 3.5 per cent, inflation in Australia is running well below other advanced economies, and the pressures are less than in those, such as 7 per cent in the US and 5 per cent in the UK.

There are more people in work today than before the pandemic and even compared to when I stood before you this time last year.

In fact there are more Australians of working age in jobs today - 76.2 per cent - than at any time in Australia’s recorded economic history.

That’s what a job plan looks like when it works.

Unemployment is at 4.2 per cent. When I stood here a year ago, it was 6.6 per cent.

And women and young people have been major beneficiaries of our economic plan.

Female employment, since we were elected, has increased by more than 1 million since our Government was elected. 1 million. And our youth unemployment has fallen to below 10 per cent for the first time since 2008. And as my colleague knows, nothing puts a bigger smile on my face than hearing young people are getting into jobs.

Through the heavy lifting of more than $100 billion in Federal Government COVID business support, hundreds of thousands of livelihoods and businesses have been saved.

The lack of precision of the JobKeeper scheme – as well as the reluctance of many large, cash-flow positive businesses to return the money they received – has been well covered elsewhere. But it’s worth alluding to again.

And our ongoing tax incentives for investment, apprenticeship wage subsidies and record investment in new training places are helping small and medium sized businesses and their employees to push through.

Our apprentice wage subsidies have driven a 27 per cent increase in apprentices and trainees over the past year.

Right now, there are now 220,000 trade apprentices currently in training. That is the highest level of apprentices in trade training since records began in Australia in 1963. That’s transformational.

When we stared into this pandemic, one of the things the Treasurer and I were very keen to avoid was a lost generation of skills. And it so easily could have happened.

The very first wage subsidy we provided was to keep apprentices in their training and in those businesses. As I've moved across the country these last two years, I've met those apprentices. And most recently, I was out in Penrith. And I met one. They'd just finished their 4-year apprenticeship. That would never have happened.

It’s odd that Morrison didn’t direct his speechwriter to include the name of the apprentice in Penrith! Or that perhaps his team didn’t think to record it at the time. It turns a potentially effective anecdote with a real person at its centre into a small loose thread.

Our $110 billion pipeline of infrastructure projects is supporting economic growth and resilience, especially in regional Australia.

More than 11 million Australian taxpayers are benefitting from income tax relief - as we promised - and the latest ATO data showing that younger Australians have benefited more than most. Under 25s have benefitted on average by more than $2,400 under our plan, that is a decline in their tax bill of almost 20 per cent. That’s what keeping more of what you earn looks like.

On average Australians are also now 47 months ahead on their mortgage repayments, compared to 30 months in September 2019, with an estimated $245 billion in additional savings on household balance sheets since the pandemic began. Australians have been very wise with their money during this pandemic, very wise. They’ve exercised good judgement and good discipline.

Over 300,000 Australians have been directly assisted into home ownership during the past three years through Government programmes like Homebuilder and the Home Guarantee Scheme. That’s what we promised at the last election. We said we would get people in homes. And we’ve assisted more than 300,000 of them.

And at a time when North Atlantic economies are experiencing energy shortages and price spikes, ACCC data shows electricity prices, the Minister for getting electricity prices down is over there, Angus Taylor, are now 8 per cent lower than 2 years ago - the lowest in eight years - saving households $128 a year.

So that’s what economic resilience looks like. And you must continue that.

The beating heart

In 2022 our focus is squarely on locking in our economic recovery to create jobs, jobs and more jobs.

We are passionate about getting Australians into jobs and we have the experience, we have the track record and the economic plans to back this up.

Jobs change lives. They change families. They change communities. They give Australians purpose and independence. They free them from the clutches of welfare and dependence. And they do the heavy lifting on transforming the budget also.

I believe we can now achieve an unemployment rate with a 3 in front of it this year. Our goal is to achieve this in the second half of 2022.

We have not seen this in Australia for almost half a century. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

What it means, unemployment with a 3 in front of it, is that as our economy changes there are jobs to go to, enabling families and local communities to plan for their future with confidence.

It means that when our kids leave school, or finish their apprenticeship or university they can focus on the job they aspire to rather than worrying about whether they can get a job. There is no more important vision than having a country where we enable our kids to realise their dreams about what they want for their life.

And this fits with our broader vision for Australia, the Liberals and Nationals together.

Where Australians can live the life they choose for themselves and make their own way. To run their businesses, to get that job, get the skills they need to achieve their goals. To own their own home, raise and educate their kids the way they want to do it, to be able to save for their retirement, not get into too much debt and take that occasional family holiday. To give back to their community wherever they can, as they want to and including taking care of their local environment. And to live in a country that is safe and secure.

These are what I describe as the great Australian aspirations - and they depend on a strong economy.

Beyond the waffle, the self-congratulations, this is what Morrison’s speech is about: abundant jobs, made possible by strong economic management, which contribute to safe, prosperous, white picket fence communities whose residents are undisturbed by the sound and fury of social media and whatever goes on in Canberra.

This is the Hymn of the Quiet Australian. The Australian who just wants to keep their head down, not cause a fuss, and provide a comfortable life for their family. And, especially when considering the section of Morrison’s speech which comes immediately after it, it seems clear that it will be the cornerstone of the Government’s election strategy.

As we approach this year’s election this means strong economic management is more important than ever.

Our national economic plan has enabled us to drive our economy, as I’ve demonstrated, through this pandemic.

The plan seeks to create jobs by securing our economic recovery from COVID and setting Australia up for the future.

The plan has five core elements. You’ve heard me talk about it before

Firstly, keeping taxes low and cutting red tape to drive investment and enable Australians to keep more of what they earn, as we promised.

Secondly, investing in the infrastructure and skills development and growing our workforce to meet the demands of a growing economy.

Thirdly, delivering the affordable, reliable energy that Australian businesses and especially regional economies need to power their futures ahead, while reducing our emissions to achieve net zero by 2050 and reducing household electricity bills.

Fourthly, making Australia a top ten data and digital economy by 2030.

And fifthly, securing our sovereign manufacturing capability, unlocking a new generation of high-wage, high-skill, high tech jobs.

Now this plan, I want to stress, has another overarching objective and that is about ensuring we grow together and not apart. In our cities and suburbs, as well as in our regions, towns and remote communities. We must grow together.

Foot, meet accelerator

The penultimate section of Morrison’s speech also includes an announcement (to go with the aged care worker bonus payment mentioned earlier) which, presumably, he was hoping would be received more warmly than it was.

Today I am announcing the cornerstone of the Government’s new approach to turning great Australian ideas into commercial success – a $1.6 billion program called Australia’s Economic Accelerator.

In driving commercialisation, the key policy challenge surrounds the so-called ‘valley of death’ – where early-stage research is frequently not progressed to later stages of development because of the risk and uncertainty about commercial returns. When I was Treasurer, we changed the tax rules on this.

We know this is not insurmountable. Other countries have made a better fist of solving this problem and the Government’s expert panel made a point of looking at this evidence.

Australia’s Economic Accelerator is a stage-gated, competitive program designed to attract projects at proof of concept or proof of scale and their level of commercial readiness for both, but with high potential.

It will allow Australian innovators to access funding opportunities for each stage of their project provided they can continue to prove project viability and importantly, commercial potential.

Industry involvement and engagement is required and absolutely necessary at every stage, with the CSIRO’s Main Sequence Ventures engaged to catalyse venture capital investment in R&D in the final stage.

Another key part of our plan goes directly to people and culture.

Only 40 per cent of Australia’s researchers work in private industry – well below the OECD average. This together with low mobility between industry and the university sectors leads to culture and capability gaps that reduce the ability of Australian businesses to innovate.

Now to tackle this issue, the Government will invest in a new suite of industry PhD and research fellowship schemes to create Australia’s new generation of research entrepreneur.

We will invest in an additional 1,800 industry PhDs and more than 800 industry fellows over 10 years.

This $296 million investment aims to fundamentally reshape the workforce of Australia’s universities and career options, encouraging mobility and collaboration between university researchers and industry. It is time to get together.

Our $2.2 billion University Research Commercialisation package will focus the considerable research power, our smartest mind of our universities, on Australia’s national economic priorities.

And as we drive down unemployment, we’re also driving up the creation of new products and new companies in Australia.

Backing our best researchers and their ideas to ensure Australia’s economy roars back even stronger in the future, with leading edge manufacturing at its core.

We make stuff here. We make it really well. And we’re going to keep making it under this Government.

I and everyone reading this understands perfectly well that the median University researcher in Australia (or the average person ideologically affiliated with the University sector) will not be voting for the Coalition in May’s election. Beyond their fury at a lack of economic support for the sector as it being ravaged by the pandemic (border closures preventing the arrival of international students, the impossibility of in-person classes, etc), there is a widespread perception that the Morrison Government simply doesn’t much care for the average academic.

I won’t dive too deeply into the culture war politics that a full analysis of this would require, only to say that a $1.6 billion commitment to commercialise research, together with an additional $296 million commitment to create industry-aligned PhD and Fellowship programs is the kind of announcement that one would expect a Government that doesn’t especially value the contributions (or votes) of the University sector, beyond their ability to help the private sector.

And the final line – I’ll allow myself a small chuckle at the increasingly frenetic arms race being waged by Australia’s two major political parties in demonstrating the sincerity of their commitment to making stuff in Australia. Because those are the jobs with the greatest political currency.

Wrapping up

The end of a speech is often where the speaker (and writer) will look to deliver their best lines: the most moving, the most passionate, the most persuasive. This makes sense: after all, it is the last chance to make a profound impression upon your audience. So let’s assess the closing to Morrison’s speech.

Now, in conclusion, there are times in all of our lives, and for nations, when things don’t come easy, when we persevere and struggle to push our way through.

We’ve known these days. I’ve known these days. And at those times you remember, you look back and say that's the time I became stronger. This is again one of those times. And it has been.

Despite the challenges we have faced, Australia, I believe, is stronger and more resilient today than when I stood before you a year ago.

Our COVID response has delivered one of the lowest death rates, highest vaccination rates and strongest economies in the world.

And we remain well prepared for the future.

Just like before, it won’t be perfect, but the experience we have gained, the investments we have made and above all the resilience that Australians themselves have shown mean that we can see our way forward.

But we cannot take this for granted. Now is not the time to turn back.

This year we must work to bring as much normality back to peoples’ lives as possible and at the same time as we continue to battle this constantly shape-shifting pandemic, we must continue to make the big calls necessary to keep our economy strong, keep Australians safe, and keep Australians growing together and not apart.

This requires experience, requires careful deliberation, requires fiscal responsibility, well-developed plans. Above all, the courage to take decisions that stand up for Australia’s interests, and not be intimidated, as we have demonstrated especially over these past three years.

It is not a time to have an each way bet on Australia’s future.

We must continue to build our strength and resilience - and not put everything you have worked all so hard for, and made great sacrifices for, at risk.

Because, in these times, that’s what truly matters.

My take-aways

Morrison paints a picture of a nation that has suffered – and a PM who has suffered! – but continues to stand proudly. Australia and Australians are unbowed. In fact, we can look ahead to a normal future with determination and optimism. Delivering that much-desired normal future will call for experience, fiscal responsibility and “well-developed plans”, all things which Morrison believes his Government can provide.

But to take a risk now – in other words, to elect the other lot at the next election – would be to put “everything you have worked all [sic] so hard for, and made great sacrifices for” in danger.

The message is clear. Change the government, and face yet more uncertainty. Keep the government, and you’ll be delivered to a calmer future. The future where the Quiet Australian can do what they do best: simply get on with it.

Will it work politically? As I said, I’m not a political advisor. Does it work rhetorically? There’s a strange disconnect here. Scott Morrison leads a government that was returned not thanks to people who care about speeches delivered at the National Press Club, but by people in Australia’s “heartlands” – the outer suburbs, the regions, tourism-dependent towns and small cities. They may not have heard this speech. But you can be sure that they will be exposed to the speech’s key political message – a vote for a Morrison Government is a vote for Things Going Back to Normal – before May.